Russian Invasion of Ukraine to Turbocharge Renewables Deals

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is acting as a catalyst for accelerating the EU’s transition to renewable energy.
Energy security concerns are pushing EU countries to adopt greener energy sources faster than previously planned.

The EU’s REPowerEU plan (March 2022) aims to drastically reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels amid fears of supply cut-offs and sanctions impact.
Builds on:
- EU Green Deal (climate neutrality by 2050)
- Fit for 55 (targeting 55% emissions reduction by 2030)
REPowerEU focuses on:
- Fast-tracking wind, solar, and hydrogen projects.
- Streamlining project permits to accelerate deployment.
- Potentially increasing renewable energy targets from 40% to 45% share by 2030.

The energy crisis is expected to:
- Trigger a surge in private sector renewables deals in the near term.
- Lead to more public share sales once markets stabilize.
New funding models like ‘partnership capital’ and ‘capital recycling’ will become widespread to mobilize the necessary investments.
The EU estimates €279 billion in private sector investment is needed by 2030 to support the Green Deal pathway to climate neutrality.

In 2021, the EU imported approximately:
- 140 bcm of gas via pipeline from Russia
- 15 bcm of liquefied natural gas (LNG)
This represented nearly 40% of the EU’s total gas consumption — highlighting vulnerability to geopolitical risks.

The war may be seen historically as a watershed moment for climate action.
By accelerating renewables at scale, the EU could finally eliminate the ‘green premium’ and usher in an era of affordable, clean energy.