Context
With Joe Biden’s election as U.S. President, a shift in economic priorities and policies is expected, focusing on pandemic recovery, climate change, social equality, and international cooperation.
Key Priorities
- COVID-19 Response & Fiscal Support
Immediate extension of fiscal aid such as enhanced unemployment benefits, support for small businesses, and funding for schools and local governments to counteract pandemic-induced economic contraction. - Green Infrastructure Investment
A large infrastructure bill focused on climate change and sustainability is anticipated as the first major legislative push. - Social and Economic Reforms
Proposals include raising the minimum wage, expanding healthcare access, paid sick leave and childcare, strengthening unions, increasing corporate and high-income taxes, promoting competition (especially in tech), and bolstering education and immigration programs.
Foreign Relations and Trade
- US-China Relations
Ongoing tension expected; Biden may favor sanctions over tariffs but the friction remains a medium-term concern. - India
Strong alliance expected to continue, with India playing a key role in the Quad group alongside the US, Japan, and Australia. - ASEAN Region
Mixed outlook: less confrontational US foreign policy welcomed, but persistent US-China tensions and tariffs may dampen regional growth via weak exports and protectionism. - Japan
Uncertain if US-Japan relations will normalize fully. Potential rollback of Trump-era tariffs hinted, but no clear move back to multilateral free trade. Increased focus on climate policy expected, influencing Japan’s green initiatives. - South Korea
Likely benefits from less disruptive US foreign policy and emphasis on green economy, aiding industrial restructuring and expanding green markets via re-entry into the Paris Agreement. - Australia
Strong US alliance to continue. Australia-China tensions expected to persist amid ongoing US-China rivalry and Australia’s defense ties with the US. - Europe
Positive impact from anticipated larger US fiscal stimulus and improved diplomacy. Reduced tariff risks for EU auto exports. Uncertainty remains about the prospects for a UK-US trade deal.
Summary
Biden’s administration is poised to steer the US economy toward recovery and transformation with a robust social and environmental agenda, while fostering steadier international relations—albeit with continuing strategic competition with China. This will have wide-ranging implications for US allies and trading partners globally.
